Free State Wyoming Forum
Free State Wyoming (FSW) Promotional => Making the Case for Moving Toward Freedom (and Wyoming!) => Topic started by: planetaryjim on July 11, 2007, 11:59:07 PM
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Dear Friends,
Things are looking very, very promising.
How so? Well, I took what I recall as the correct number for 2004 and the official numbers from the Casper Star Tribune for 2005, 2006, and 2007 as it would not do to contradict the established mainstream media 8) and here we go:
2004 28
2005 40
2006 80
2007 130
2008 219
2009 369
2010 621
2011 1,046
2012 1,762
2013 2,968
2014 5,001
2015 8,426
2016 14,197
2017 23,921
2018 40,306
2019 67,915
2020 114,436
Where do these figures come from?
Well, as I said, the historical figures are my recollection for 2004, plus published figures. These values generate three growth rates, being 1.429, 2, and 1.625. That is, the growth from 2004 to 2005 was almost 1.43, the growth from 2005 to 2006 was about double, and the growth from 2006 to 2007 was one and five eighths. These are then averaged to generate a value of 1.685.
I then applied that growth rate to the value for 2007 and truncated it to the nearest person to get a value for 2008. (One could quibble about rounding up or down. Truncating always rounds down.)
Depending on what you believe about the future, the growth of population in Wyoming, and the meaning of attendance at the jamboree, these figures look very promising, to me. I am, of course, extrapolating a large data set from a small one. So, logically, one should not pay as much attention to the projections beyond the year 2011, since that is the fourth year of the projection based on a sample of four years.
I would say that the attendance at the jamboree represents a core of very dedicated people (judging by the faces I keep seeing) plus the most interested of the forum members. If we suppose there were about 590 people on the forum at the time that most who attended actually chose to schedule their time off for the jam and otherwise plan for it, then the jam represents about 22% of the total on the forum.
That growth curve looks like so:
jamsters forum members?
2004 28 127
2005 40 181
2006 80 363
2007 130 590
2008 219 995
2009 369 1677
2010 621 2822
2011 1,046 4754
2012 1,762 8009
2013 2,968 13490
2014 5,001 22731
2015 8,426 38300
2016 14,197 64531
2017 23,921 108731
2018 40,306 183209
2019 67,915 308704
2020 114,436 520163
Obviously, those are very nice numbers indeed, especially in later years. But, they are even more uncertain, because I am utterly extrapolating from a single data point. If anyone knows what the Yahoo forum or this forum's membership were like two months prior to the 2004, 2005, or 2006 jams, that would be additional data to use in forming a trend line. But, again, its statistical validity in the more distant future would be questionable.
Growth is good. Geometric growth is clearly present. No, we did not double again this year, unless one is very generous with rounding, which I prefer not to be. 8) But, we still have a geometric growth rate which presents very respectable figures.
It is the case that the number of people with actual voting residence in Wyoming who are members of FSW (or associates) is and has been so far, smaller than the number of people who have attended the jam that year. However, obviously, one can see a time when there are people in the state who are members and don't bother to attend the jam. This year is an example. At some point, they may outnumber those who do attend the jam. So, the forum membership times some factor becomes the FSW voter impact.
In other words, briefly, I think we are seeing a trend which promises great political success by 2020.
Regards,
Jim
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Thanks for the numbers Jim. As you stated pretty limited data to work with so the analysis isn't what, in my business, is considered "actuarily valid", it's nonetheless very encouraging. Like Antonio said, "What's past is prologue, what to come, in yours and my discharge".
Back, then, to the work of turning those "soft" numbers into real ones :).
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114,436? We're gonna need a bigger campground by at least 2020... ;)
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114,000 "gun nuts" all in one place? We'd best camp a ways out of town... and have one heck of a range built!! LOL