Free State Wyoming Forum
Free State Wyoming (FSW) Promotional => Making the Case for Moving Toward Freedom (and Wyoming!) => Topic started by: sambaguy on December 13, 2011, 09:42:20 PM
-
Anyone care to venture? A grim topic, of course. I've been operating for a long time on Jim Roger's prediction made in, I believe 2008, that by 2012, the world was going to implode. By this I assumed that basically everyone who was going to starve or be killed in riots would do so by 2012. I've heard others here say basically the dying would start in a major burst 2012 and continue until sometime between about 2016 and 2022 or so. Obviously, many of the behaviors one should adopt do not depend on the economy.
-
It's impossible to know how events will turn in the short term, but I don't get the feeling that the US has the national will to solve the problems facing it in the next few years. This means the economy will likely continue its decent into chaos. That could lead to economic upheavals, regime change, etc. by 2016. A recent article, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/ML13Dj05.html (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/ML13Dj05.html), suggests a rather astounding view for the longer term, namely, that lower fertility rates will decrease world population by 2100 by some 20%. As nations and groups decline, there is likely to be irrational acts - wars, terrorism, etc.
Or everyone could come to their senses ::).
-
I am normally not a doomsayer, but when it comes to people and rationality, always bet against them. Individual humans are intelligent, articulate, and thoughtful. People as a group are stupid, emotionally driven, and prone to illogical action.
-
Or everyone could come to their senses ::).
Where is the roflmao Smilie? It is getting more useful every day.........
-
Or everyone could come to their senses ::).
Where is the roflmao Smilie? It is getting more useful every day.........
Here's one.
(http://www.scotsdown.com/IndexImages/rotf.gif)
-
Was just discussing this the other day, mainly in light of gold and silver taking their last couple dips over the last couple months. The cause of these dips is thought to be European investors beefing up the dollar with the Euro going down the tubes. Let's also bear in mind the bailout money...where did it go? US treasury. I've read other reports that point toward an all-out US treasury bubble. That's where the BS from the credit/real estate bubble went, and now it's catching the BS from the failing Euro.
My admittedly un-experienced opinion is that the price of gold/silver in USD (note USD, not VALUE) will continue to decline as the Euro continues its downward spiral. Or maybe not, maybe it will just go up more slowly. Suppose that would depend on the investment habits of the Europeans. Then after the Euro's ultimate demise, we all come to discover that the US treasury has become over inflated, and, well, I think we all know what that means.
So my short-term plan for that is to follow the bit of wisdom of "buying what you need the gold for" rather than gold itself, while obviously keeping an eye on trends. I anticipate that inflation on "stuff you need" will out-pace inflation of gold/silver. The last year food went up about 30% to gold's 40% (not hard facts, just what I've observed), but with the fall of the Euro in the mix that could easily flip. I'd guess that by the time gold/silver start to go up, they will likely go up big time, as it's something more keen investors will probably be keeping a close eye on as well.
As for "buying what you need the gold for," things like backup power, heirloom seeds, and the typical nice things to have during SHTF seem to be a good start. In anticipation of increased crime caused by looters and other un-prepared people whose desperation surpasses their morality, security seems like a good bet as well.
Any thoughts?
-
My thought, surely not new, is that for an indeterminate period, food, ammunition, firearms, tools, perhaps some other types of items, and possibly seeds if things go for more than a season or two, and in various areas will be priceless. My base scenario is that one-third of the people currently living paycheck to paycheck (77% of Americans, according to this guy in 2010*) will die. That means about 1/4 of the country, or 80 million. More elsewhere in the developed world. Meanwhile, hyperinflation will take hold, and owning PMs will be necessary.
After the reestablishment of commerce throughout the USA, (assuming it ceases in remote places), all of the items that we are buying now for a relatively high price, such as 1000 rds of .308 for, say, 1/4 of a price of an oz. of gold, will drop by 80% or more measured in terms of gold because global demand for base metals, food, and other necessities will remain very low, thanks to a population drop by 1/4 in the developed world and the impoverishment of that developed world. I estimate (don't quote me) base metal consumption will drop to 25% of what it has been. Probably concomitant with this would be an increase in consumption of metal for ammunition and other 'security' goods, but a drop in industrial consumption. Transporatation becomes more expensive because trucks now must travel by convoy with guards hired to fight off bandits, and the price of goods becomes correspoindingly more expensive.
Implication: one should have survivalist stuff, but not enough for Mad Max, and the rest of one's assets should be in PMs to deal with hyperinflation. Elsewhere it has been stated that the first thing to go in case of hyperinflation was clean water, I'll add.
Alternative scenario: commerce is not really interrupted, but ammunition costs do not drop by 75% because of increased domestic need and rise in cost of transport and operation of stores. In Cebu, in the Philippines, quite a corrupt place, every medium-sized shop/business hires a security guard. Potentially our (distant) future.
Likewise, a piece of gear on which I have had my eye is a 3rd gen. NVG. (I'm broke.) Without mad max, such is probably not worth buying.
*http://economicrot.blogspot.com/2010/09/77-of-americans-now-living-paycheck-to.html
-
I think that most of the US would just turn into Northern Mexico.. Same corruption, same crime, same unemployment so on and so forth.
You will have fighting in the street between the Gov and the terrorists. Everything will be blamed on the terrorists. Gotta blame someone...
-
On the National scale, I have very little influence.
On a PERSONAL scale, I can do what I can to become self-sufficient, eliminate debt, legally procure things which help me to have the ability to feed myself, my family and (preferably) at least some of my neighbors.
I have lived and travelled extensively in Latin America and I see many parallels with what goes on there. I anticipate a continued erosion of our buying power, continued denial (on both individual and collective levels) that "somehow things will work out" and, eventually, a virtual extinction of the middle class.
In Argentina a "wealthy" and "smart" person immediately spends the money they get on rice and cooking oil because the amount of rice and cooking oil that they can purchase today is more than their money will purchase tomorrow. Don't be at all shocked when you start seeing people here define "wealth" in similar ways.
Ultimately the government (by design or negligence) is enslaving all of us economically to further solidify their power base and give the appearance of legitimacy to their insatiable desire for bigger government. Do what you can to get yourself, your family, your neighbors and everyone else as free from this damning trend while you can.
-
These observations are good, but I feel my observations on the prices of ammo, particularly, were more directly related to the OP, at least the topic I intended to raise.
-
I want to cast doubt on Boston's recommendations in the Gun Bible - thousands of rounds of .308, tens of thousands of .22, etc. We have enormous speculative opportunity. Anyone buying far too much ammo is throwing a big part of it away. Note I'm only advocating one buying 100 rds. of .308. Just don't buy thousands, unless you have a lot of pals who you know will need it.
-
I see where you're going but I am not sure how you would waste any ammunition that you don't immediately use. Modern ammunition has no real shelf-life and if it's kept dry and cool is will last longer than you or I will.
I have shot ammunition that was over 40 years old (including 12 Ga. with paper shells) without a single problem in the "real world" and I've shot .50 BMG in Iraq that was manufactured during WWII. Think about that, I TRUSTED my life to ammunition that was over 60 years old...
I think that there are limits to everything and that going into debt to buy ammunition and not having any foodstuffs, toilet paper, nice boots or nice sleeping bags is less than ideal. Having said that, when do you think the government will outlaw food, toilet paper, boots or sleeping bags? They certainly have tried to ban (or make prohibitively expensive or put materials in ammunition and reloading powder which WILL break down and, eventually, create a shelf-life for ammunition).
I can easily envision a time when my children or grandchildren FERVENTLY thank me for having the forsight to stock up on plenty of ammunition - especially in rimfire .22 which is very difficult for most people to reload.
I guess that puts me more in line with Boston on this one. Having said that, the PR associated with "...and then they found ten million rounds of ammunition on his property..." would be hard for most people to understand.
I'm also reminded of the time they made the 7.62 x 39 "steel core" ammunition illegal and my buddy with a MAK-90 suddenly had a very nice club while I still had a semi-automatic (or should we say "self-loading") rifle... That one worked out well for me though as I picked up a brand-new MAK-90 for less than the cost of a Ruger 10-22.
-
Correction: I meant to write that one should have more .308 than simply 100 rds.
One wouldn't be wasting the ammo b/c of the ammo spoiling. One would be wasting money on ammo b/c I believe that shortly after the coming collapse, ammo will be dirt cheap. Gold would be more valuable than your 5,000th rd. of ammo.
-
Gold, silver or anything else small, portable and valuable is a good thing but remember that in places like Leningrad FOOD was king and people would trade away all they had for a few bites of food.
At the end of the day, gold won't keep you warm or fill your belly. On the other hand, neither will ammunition, unless, of course, you go hunting and happen to get something.
Still, I'd rather send lead rapidly downrange than throw gold or silver at someone intent on doing me harm.
As long as a person has "enough" ammunition for any perceived need they may have, they'll sleep at night.
Whatever you do, however, don't count on greenbacks to be worth anything other than tinder when TSHTF - I know I'm preaching to the choir on that one. Gold has some intrinsic value whereas our fiat currency is only good as long as people THINK it's worth something.
-
I am normally not a doomsayer, but when it comes to people and rationality, always bet against them. Individual humans are intelligent, articulate, and thoughtful. People as a group are stupid, emotionally driven, and prone to illogical action.
"people and rationality" don't matter. The MATH is against anything but Total Collapse. Sooner or Later it MUST happen.
-
Ironsights, would you be so kind as to try to be a tad more precise than "total collapse"? It would be a big favor. I mention it because even Zimbabwe arguably hasn't had a 'total' collapse. Ruined, but not necessarily 'totally.'
People talk a lot about Argentina, but Zimbabwe might teach us more. I believe that in 2009 or 2010, the population of Zimbabwe was estimated to shrink (due to starvation) by about 30%, according to a big aid donor. The population there had probably already declined phenomenally before then. The Heritage Foundation says the Zimbabwean banking system has been characterized by numerous collapses/crises. Barring the immediate Stalization/Obamanization of the USA, things here may not turn into Zimbabwe. One reason: Obama does not exactly have the kind of minions that started throwing the established farmers off of their land in Zimbabwe. Very close, perhaps, but they have not exactly started wielding machetes yet. That is a big factor in the Heritage Foundation's very low score in Economic Freedom for Zimbabwe. Many think Obama is trying to become an absolute tyrant and say his intent is just like Mugabe's, so maybe he will. Further, America may have more backbone or oomph than Black Rhodesians, who were 95% of Southern Rhodesia and who joined the Marxists more often than not. Impossible to say. America is spoiled, but judging by responses of the public at the Republican debates, about half of the country still has a skeleton of respect for property.
This won't exactly be Leningrad under siege. Maybe one will have to rely completely on one's stored food for years, but that is not certain.
-
I want to cast doubt on Boston's recommendations in the Gun Bible - thousands of rounds of .308, tens of thousands of .22, etc. We have enormous speculative opportunity. Anyone buying far too much ammo is throwing a big part of it away. Note I'm only advocating one buying 100 rds. of .308. Just don't buy thousands, unless you have a lot of pals who you know will need it.
I have never had ammo go down in price. Not once in 20 years. I also have not indulged in panic buying at 900USD/box either. It is as durable as any other tangible investment and can go a lot of places that gold and silver cannot. I will invest accordingly as oppourtunity arises. Without that, i will be in the market for the things I would use the gold for...instead of buying with gold, i will be selling for it WSHTF. If the delusional idealists are right and the economy recovers, i will have years of happy living, not spending a dime, using the stores i have.
-
Marksmanship is a very perishable skill, so I think buying some extra ammunition and shooting it in meaningful practice is essential to maintain the skill level you have obtained.
YOU decide what's just enough, I'd sooner have a few cases of ammunition too many, than a few cases too few ;D
-
@pedro Ammo may not decline in price, but the price of base metals relative to gold is virtually certain to plummet in the near future b/c of mass starvation. I don't agree with Jim Rogers on commodities. A big part of the increase in price of ammo is the large increase in the cost of the raw materials. Getting iron out of the Australian Outback, one of the globe's chief sources right now, is very expensive, I promise.
@clemmac, Fine, but while one is talking about sooners, one might sooner have a free country.
Either mad max will happen or not. If it doesn't, one can assume that the USG will probably extend to Denver, and eventually by extension WY. If mad max does happen, it probably will not completely destroy China, though it would easily destroy America. Hong Kong and Singapore will probably make it, and mainland Chinese save money a lot. Therefore, a communist or even Singaporean invasion of America, however unlikely, is not completely implausible. I think Paul Bonneau linked to a page on collapse that had a link to a site that urged moving to TX b/c of all the armed ranchers there who would fight the Chinese. He lives near Austin, which of course is too close to a major city. Still, a watered part of NW Texas would have its attractions b/c of the Chinese scenario.
-
@clemmac, Fine, but while one is talking about sooners, one might sooner have a free country.
Yes, agreed ! I've been doing what I can about that "free country" for years and I'll continue doing. I'll ALSO preserve my perishable skills by doing, not just talking about it. Get out to the range and shoot, buy some extra ammo so you can continue your practice.
-
I am normally not a doomsayer, but when it comes to people and rationality, always bet against them. Individual humans are intelligent, articulate, and thoughtful. People as a group are stupid, emotionally driven, and prone to illogical action.
"people and rationality" don't matter. The MATH is against anything but Total Collapse. Sooner or Later it MUST happen.
eh... that's the kind of logic that Al Gore and others use when they make their argument that our society is "overdeveloped." If total collapse is the only possible outcome, then humans would have been better off staying in their caves long ago, rather than venturing out into the sunlight.
We can't predict the future on this issue any better than someone could have predicted what would have happened with the invention of the Internet, or the automobile or the collapse of the Soviet Union. We don't have the schema to even conceive of it... we don't know what the world will look like if private spaceflight takes hold in the next few years, we don't know what the world will look like if China becomes the sole superpower... it's pointless to try to make predictions because we will be as wrong (and laughable) as those who predicted a Jetson-esque future of the 1960s.
I think we're kidding ourselves if we think that the downfall of the US or any other such calamity will mean the end of civilization as we know it. I bet Communist Party members in Moscow felt equally as important to the fate of the world in 1988 as many here do nowadays... but the world kept turning and we humans are still here to dream of new delusions. That being said, the Soviet Union is probably a good historical lesson for us: currency collapse, life savings lost, high unemployment, political corruption... sounds a lot like 2008-Present if you ask me!
Mark Steyn has a new book out called After America. I like Steyn's take on SOME things... this is one area where I disagree with the bulk of his thesis. He believes that the downfall of the US will be violent and nasty... he may be right to some extent, but I don't buy into such doomsday scenarios. There's really nothing profitable to be gained from such thought-experiments, as one's chances for survival in such a situation (regardless of how much you prepare) would be pretty slim. It's like living your life in preparation for the Second-Coming. I'd given up on such Millennial superstitions when I stopped going to church. I'm not about to trade one vision of doomsday for yet another.
-
This is going to be the downfall of the US, Europe, Japan, Russia, China, India, and plenty of other places. Whatever life in these territories looks like five years from now, the global balance of power will be different. Probably the Arabian principalities will get a lot more power. We're going to have relatively much more powerful enemies, and soon, whether in Washington or Asia.
-
Obviously this topic is dying down, but doesn't anyone feel that the price of base metals relative to gold is going to drop a lot?
-
I'm not sure about the price of base metals compared to precious metals or anything else.
The future is difficult for even Yoda to see.
I do know that being out of debt, living in a rural (vs. urban) area, having the ability to produce at least some of your own food, having some food stored, having essential skills and equipment and being around independent, self-sufficient people will greatly increase your odds for making it through WHATEVER the future throws at us.
Having some ammunition - even more than you think you'll need - seems like a good idea to me. For some reason I don't think anyone has mentioned reloading ammunition on this threat yet but, obviously, that will cut down on your shooting costs now (thus increasing the chances of you actually shooting and remaining proficient with your weapons(s)) AND make it possible to continue to shoot later if the supply of ammunition dries up or becomes restricted. As an added bonus, many powders and primers can be used to reload different calibers so stocking up on powder, primer, lead and molds seems like a good idea if you want to increase the chances you have of being able to shoot in the future.
I personally think that having LAND - especially land that you can grow food on - will be far more important to people in a few years than any other commodity.
-
Locally, the price of base metals may skyrocket relative to gold, but in whatever centers of global trade that remain after the collapse - Riyadh, Hong Kong, whatever - the price of base metals five years from now will probably be much lower.
-
Not likely. Base metals are a strange creature. They are lowest during a booming economy. Highest at the low ends of the economy due to factors such as gouging on the high end and lack of supply on the low end. Companies stop producing when they cant make a profit as happens when economies fail. Demand is very low and price is very high.
-
If demand for any good is relatively low, and particularly if it is very low, the price will be correspondingly lower. It sounds like you are proposing that supply and demand doesn't apply here. What did I miss?
-
'Gouging' is what socialists call charging a high price during scarcity.
-
Adding my $0.02 to the "Mad Max" discussion, being one who is quite an aficionado of the movies: Bear in mind the premise. It was written in something like 1979, while the cold war was raging. The first movie didn't really get into specifics, but by the time Beyond Thunderdome came out in 1986 the writers decided it was most "marketable" to surmise that the situation was caused by nuclear apocalypse. And the good news about all this "globalization" that's going on is no one really wants to pull the trigger on another. We feed the Chinese market, and they'd be damned fools to try to nuke their biggest "customers." And we couldn't afford to going back to 100% US made goods. It's economic mutually assured destruction. So who's the big nuclear threat the neocons are talking about these days? Iran. Oh yeah, those guys we have trade sanctions against. ::) ::) ::)
So, assuming we don't cause Iran to successfully nuke us, what exactly would cause Mad Max proportions of "pokyclypse?" Most of the fantasies I hear are a level worse than daily life in Afghanistan. And they have been at war for the last 30 years, the first 10 of which were marked by the Soviets raping, pillaging, burning down all their forests, and planting 4 land mines for every person that lived there. And it wasn't a spectacularly "nice" country before that all happened.
The absolute worst case scenario I can envision is another depression. The American culture is still too foolhardy and self-sufficient to cause "total collapse" IMO.
-
Metals are a traded Item. They dont correspond well with supply and demand. They are bought in bulk by speculators, not users. What the mines get paid also dosent correspond well with the price.
An example is the stock market. The economy hasent improved since 2008, however stocks are at all time highs. They should be at all time lows but they are traded by speculators who only make money when it goes up or down in large swings.
-
Isn't demand from manufacturers a lot greater than demand from speculators?
-
Nope. The speculators buy it at time of manufacturer or mining. Then they sit on it and control the price. When I was doing copper mining it was the same 2 or 3 companies who would show up wanting to buy the entire production. After 2008 when the price dropped to $1600 per ton for copper they were out in force buying it all up on 5 and 10 year contracts. They are selling it today for $7300 per ton. Still buying it for the $1600 per ton.
-
Interesting thread! Gerald Celente predicts austerity measures here after the new year. He calls it economic martial law. Watch for that. It means that 401ks and stuff will be confiscated and folks will be forced to buy bonds.
IMO silver will go back to $45 oz. early 1st quarter 2012.
The market should have fallen years ago but has been artificially propped up. Why? According to Gerald Celente it is to sucker folks into the market to lose whatever they have left. According to some oil execs it is to get the world into as massive a debt as possible so there is no hope of recovery and the banker oligarchs can then rent to us the real estate that our forefathers conquered. It's about getting us dependent.
Along those lines when you start to see banks making loans again, watch for a false recovery. It is the last there will be to sucker all the rubes into false security. It's downhill quickly from there. QE 1 and 2 was about printing trillions of dollars to give to the banks in order to keep the ponzi scheme afloat. There will be an estimated 25% inflation in 2012 as a result. It will seem that everything is getting more expensive. Watch silver. It's a rigged game but they enemy can't keep it down forever.
When the Euro falls we have 2-3 weeks max before the dollar goes. 2012 my friends will be pretty f*d up. Even if this is somehow postponed longer, the U.S. municipal defaults can not be. When cities go bankrupt the feds can put them in receivership and help them (isn't it exciting to imagine what it's like when your local government is in the Feds' pocket?). Well when a hundred municipal defaults cascade down all at once then the Feds can't help. It's over.
Sometime between March and October 2012 there will be a severe enough incident with Iran that they will destroy their own ships in the Strait of Hormuz to block it, causing oil to go to $150 to $200 a barrel. China is preparing for war with us over this btw, as is Russia. Our fuel prices will be double what we pay now, by election time 2012 (which I don't think we'll get because we will be fighting a massive mid-east regional, possibly world, war).
The high fuel prices will put many companies out of business. Don't count on ordering anything online that will need to be shipped. Forget about Kiwis from New Zealand and Bananas from South American. Daniel Estulin ( Club Bilderberg) says if you want that stuff you better grow it yourself. Expect food shortages. Can you feel the fear building? That is the point of orchestrating all of this. Expect the solution posed to be global governance and a bank of the world.
Well, my brilliant train of thought just left the station because this crap keeps me awake and sleep deprivation is like being drunk. I do expect that this time next year silver will be worth double what it is now. Gold $3000? I don't know. All fortunes based on the lie that the U.S. dollar exists will be lost in 2012.
Food stamps and welfare checks will be the last to go because the cities will burn. Hand outs will last a few years so that the plantation masters don't lose all control. People will be most mad about how long it took the gov to save them and how racist it is that it took weeks. Just like Hurricane Katrina.
-
I don't think it is reasonable to call those speculators. I might call those middlemen, and the distinction matters. When I think of speculators, I think of Hedge Fund types, often in the relatively retail (individual and small) side of investing. I consider the middlemen to be part of industry. Their speculation isn't like the speculation of Joe Smith in Smalltown, USA who is buying commodities b/c Big Jim in Singapore says so. Joe Smith is certainly going to have to liquidate, and my guess is that Joe Middleman is going to have to also. After all, the liquidity crunch will be unprecedented. Liquidity crunches cause drops in prices of widgets. Isn't that proof?
-
Well I don't know what you mean by that, but my plan is the same no matter what happens. I'm just in California temporarily as a capitalist extracting wealth while it makes sense do so.
-
I was responding to C------Wy.
-
Crappie is a fish by the way. No need to censor. :D
No these guys are speculators. They will hold the metals as long as is necessary to maintain their profit.
Trust me. Metal prices wont come down. Demand right now is at its lowest in 20 years. Most of the mines I mentioned are Idle. They cannot aford to operate at the contract price so the speculators grant them reprieve from sales. But not the price.
-
Fish -> :D
OK, call them speculators. Of course they will hold as long as they want. In a liquidity crunch, though, they won't have a choice, b/c demand for base metals, excepting for ammo and maybe a bit of other, unknown types of items, will surely plummet. I believe there will be mass death in a liquidity crunch. Mass death implies that demand will fall off a cliff. Er, right?
Or take hyperinflation. Industrial demand will plummet. No one will be able to afford cars, newly built houses, etc. Investor demand will not skyrocket b/c base metals do not serve as money well. Consult the Austrian School for that, I don't remember the specific thinker.
Hedge Fund Joe will never sell to any manufacturing company during ordinary times, and his economic vote, I would guess, counts big time.
If I were in Wyoming, I could have these discussions much more quickly. I'm staying in NoDak in hopes of making better money. I don't think the jobs in WY right now would be as good b/c I don't really think I can do a rotating shift. Ergh.
-
I think Dodd's predictions above are pretty accurate, except war with China and Russia. Think of it from the point of the ruling class in those countries. What possible reason is there for the Chinese ruling class to invade the US? To grab our factories? They already have them! To grab our farmland to feed their people? No, it's much less expensive to let Americans farm their own farms and just buy the food, paying with goods they produce in their factories.
It's not to say wars won't happen, because war is often in the interests of the ruling classes. But I expect them to be more localized, except special cases like where there is oil (yeah we and Europeans will continue to occupy the Middle East). Maybe America will invade Mexico. But Chinese are not coming here, other than to purchase an occasional property here and there, which is not a problem. Our problem will never be invasion. Our problem is and always will be the occupation of America by the lizard people running Washington D.C.
As to ammo, what is "enough"? For example with .308, I think you need enough .308 for 100 to 200 rounds per bolt gun (2 or 3 times that much for a semi-auto) for actual fighting. Why? If you are fighting, by the time you have used up 200 rounds and killed 50 people, you will be dead. Maybe a lot sooner! At any rate, your chances of going beyond 200 rounds fired in anger from a bolt gun seem slim indeed (we will not be following "get a lot of lead in the air" doctrine). For practice, you need some more, but I don't think rifle skills are that perishable (pistol skills are probably more so). You may be able to reload and use cast bullets for this small amount of practice, so a couple hundred rounds total with reloading supplies should be plenty.
Why 200 rounds per rifle? Because you will be loaning out your guns to people who didn't think ahead, to help provide security needs. Any gun you have without ammo is just a club, so you have to think about it on a per-rifle basis.
Finally you need ammo for trade, however much you are comfortable getting. I think ammo is an excellent trade good.
The above may well be total BS, so don't take it too seriously. :)
-
The only reason to trade ammo is if one assumes 1) base metal will increase in price relative to PMs or 2) ammo would be limited, which can only happen due to mad max or to new gov't taxes or restrictions.
China wouldn't invade us. That would play to our strengths. They would invade Saudi Arabia. That would certainly play to our weakness. At least, that might be my strategy, if I were the Reds.
-
China wouldn't invade us. That would play to our strengths. They would invade Saudi Arabia. That would certainly play to our weakness. At least, that might be my strategy, if I were the Reds.
That is a darned good point. Much how there was actually fighting during the cold war, but it all took place in Afghanistan. And if it weren't for the fact that everybody had nukes pointed at each other, we probably wouldn't have been as secretive about it.
It also does play well into Sun Tzu's Art of War, in that protracted war in a distant country will ruin a country. And we're already quite famous for doing that with relatively little provocation anyway.
-
And I still hold that demand for base metals will plummet within about twelve months!
-
I'm assuming a government restriction on supply of cartridges. To me that seems the most likely path of gun control these days. Or very high taxes, as with cigarettes. Either can still happen even if ammo production costs go down. That's why I still think they would make good trade goods. However if the depression comes and demand for metal drops BEFORE the gun control legislation, there might be a period where ammo cost is pretty reasonable. That would be a good time to stock up.
If Ron Paul gets elected (BIG if!) then I expect ammo cost to go way down because all the troops are coming home, and military consumption would be very low.
-
I think the pro-gun lobby in this country is still relatively strong, and the only thing worsening that would be mass immigration (oops) or mass starvation from the catastrophe (possible). Increasing crime, however, should strengthen the (pro)-gun lobby. I could easily see taxes on ammo rising a lot. In Australia, a round of .308 costs $4 b/c the left disarmed Australians.
As to crappie's argument that the price of base metals will increase, they certainly did during the 70s, and Jim Rogers made fortunes, but there wasn't mass starvation then. If only 3% starves this time, consumption of base metal will drop. Just consider the price swings from late 2008.
-
I am not sure what the prices of ammunition or base metals will do in the future but I know what ammunition prices have done over the last few years.
Over the weekend I bought some additional ammunition. When I put it away next to identical ammunition I purchased 3-4 years ago I was shocked to notice that the price I paid this weekend was about 50% more than prices I paid for the same ammunition I bought previously.
Sadly, I don't think it was due to taxes (like those you see on gasoline at both the Federal and Local levels). I do think that inflation, in and of itself, is starting to really accelerate regardless of what the official figures are. I have noticed similar price shock with my grocery bill.
Perhaps I am experiencing this sticker shock because I was in Iraq for a year and didn't need to purchase much while I was over there but can anyone tell me if my observations are localized or of a more general nature? I remember the "official" inflation figures under Carter being around 21% and, supposedly, things now aren't nearly that bad but my money DEFINITELY doesn't purchase what it did a few years ago and ammunition, fuel, groceries, etc., seem to be only the tip of the iceberg.
On the other hand, there are PLENTY of folks selling their unneeded toys to pay the bills so, if you're able to pay cash, there are a lot of deals out there but, as has been said, the demand for NEW big-ticket items such as houses, automobiles, even major appliances, seems to be much less locally than it used to be.
-
After reading this, (http://lewrockwell.com/orig13/collum1.1.1.html) I am a lot more negative about things. Really looks like it is time to hunker down now.
-
Thanks for that. I read it all, and I think it is a good summary, though there is little that is new in itself. He reminds us that peak oil is basically here, as well as peak resources. Still, I'm putting my money overwhelmingly (>80%) in physical PMs during the next twelve months. In twenty-four months, perhaps, then would certainly be time to buy energy, unless for localized stashes in case of immediate and utter, we-need-an-HK91 chaos.
-
Yep, that was a great link, a lot to it but it did a gruesome job of summing it up. Like EHBIV, I'm recently returned from a year "outside the pot" (referring to the pot we're slowly being boiled in), and I was welcomed to a 30% increase in food prices and a 50% increase in gold. Gas was also something like $2.75 if I remember right, and they're hovering right around $3 now, although that seems to be a completely different beast. Although ammo prices aren't much different, those seemed to peak after the scramble of late '08 that lasted a bit into '09. Actually they seem to have gone down just a tad since a year ago. But I'm thinking that was more just the market normalizing after the scramble.
In '08 I also saw copper go high enough that people got desperate enough to strip wiring harnesses out of vehicles in the junkyard, which I no longer see, although I can't put a lot of confidence in that as a "yardstick" because that was only while I was in OK for 7 months. I've never seen that done up in IA, so maybe that's just something they do in the south. Made it really hard to get wiring parts for my engine swap, I had to get them all out of a car with the ominous warning "watch out, big-ass rattlesnake" painted on the window. >:D
Although scrap doesn't seem to have gone down too much, at least not iron, as another thing my family talked about is how you just can't find a running car for under $1000 anymore. Even as recent as 2006 you could still get a driveable "beater" for $500 without too much effort. No surprise, last week at the junkyard they were advertising $395+ for cars and $240/ton scrap. Pretty sure a year before they were offering something like $175-$200 for cars tops.
After reading this, (http://lewrockwell.com/orig13/collum1.1.1.html) I am a lot more negative about things. Really looks like it is time to hunker down now.
I do have to hand one thing to the Keynesians, their ability to manipulate the market does appear to "soften the crash," because as far as I'm concerned it's already underway. Record unemployment and 30% increases in food, 50% increases in gold, and 50% increases in costs of the most basic transportation (still a huge indicator in my book as our culture is accustomed to commuting and thus requires basic transportation) are BAD NEWS. Right now I see our "crash" at the stages of skidding along the ground at 200 mph with a wing on fire. You can look around and most people are doing OK still, but it ain't over yet. With what appears to my amateur eyes as a "treasury bubble" fueled by TARP (and its evil spawns), and now the Euro boondoggle causing further "controlled inflation," we're skidding right towards a cliff.
The recent drop in silver and gold over the last month scares me a bit, as that seems tied to what's going on with the Euro. And of course you know what that means: with that much more of the USD invested into the Euro, when the Euro finally goes away the USD is even more toast, if that's possible. It will be interesting to see what they try to bury all this accumulated debt into next. Knowing them they will come up with something, and the cycle will repeat until something "big" happens. The review Paul posted already talks about increases in violence over the last year...
So yeah, I'm hunkering down as well. It's going down right now.