inflation, gas prices and the rural economy in WY - group prep and defense?

[4n23vl]

hello there, been lurking from MD recently, and also following the writing of FerFal about how things played out in Argentina, (with some findings counterintuitive). 

Some things he emphasized was the hardships faced by rural areas after the currency collapse, and how people moved into cities.  See for example this post, with a link to situation in MT now.

http://ferfal.blogspot.com/2011/03/food-and-gas-prices-and-survival-of.html

Some questions I have:

What are the most important industries within the 3 'target' counties and how will they respond to hyperinflation?   

What parts of WY stand to gain/boom from soaring fuel, precious metals and food prices?  Which areas will become unlivable/difficult do to high fuel costs vs. low local wages?

According to FerFal, folks with relatively isolated houses, as in rural areas, were commonly raided by professional criminals who would watch for weaknesses and then take over the house and rape and pillage; even if one is well armed and trained, it may be impractical to keep ones guard successfully 24-7, year in and year out, after the collapse.  It is thus preferable, from that perspective, to have multiple families sharing units in a building, or in houses close together -- some sort of defensible community living arrangement.  Are FSW folk moving-in literally clustered next door to each other, perhaps in very close proximity to available services and planning for survival/defense at the community level?

Thanks,

Nick

[Terence]

Interesting questions. Here's some personal views on some of them:

Few, if any companies in the US have any experience functioning in
inflationary environments. However, Wyoming's mineral commodities of coal, natural gas,
coalbed methane and crude oil would be naturally adaptive to price fluctuations.

There are trade-offs involved in any choice for a safe location. It's certainly no
place to impose a one-size-fits-all solution.

A small beater car with good gas mileage is probably a good little investment for
rising gas prices.

Terence

[SunDog]

The situation in MT is described " ... [she] loads her beat-up SUV with juice boxes, graham crackers and apple sauce she bought at Walmart for her 6-year-old daughter's birthday party. The 60-mile round trip she makes twice a week for groceries hits her wallet hard - the food stamps don't go far, gas prices are skyrocketing...."

So why is she buying graham crackers and juice boxes? Food staples would go a lot farther, and maybe she wouldn't have to make the trip twice a week!

But to Nick's point, I think small towns will prove more survivable in hard times than rural retreats (unless you're with a dozen or more of your friends). But in order to fit in to a small town, you should move ASAP if you aren't there already, and then get involved. Get to know the neighbors. Find out how you can help them, and you'll find out how they will help you.

[Paul Bonneau]

I think Ferfal makes a good case for the problems with isolated rural dwellings, but I'm not so sure about his enthusiasm for cities. I too think the small town is the ideal situation. I think he is one of the best sources of information for bad times, though.

One nice thing about small towns in states like Wyoming is that, despite being small, they are relatively complete and self-contained, except for the very smallest. This is because of the distance to neighboring towns. There do not appear to be any "bedroom communities" in Wyoming, which are common elsewhere, especially near large cities.

Wyoming business appears to be fairly inflation-proof, and Wyoming is often out of sync with the rest of the country, economically. However, when the overall economy sinks, fuel use shrinks also, so Wyoming coal exports won't necessarily keep up at the current rate. But I doubt the bottom will fall out as in some industries.

[Old Ironsights]

... There do not appear to be any "bedroom communities" in Wyoming, which are common elsewhere, especially near large cities...

Sadly, Lingle is fitting that profile more & more each year.

[Don Wills]

There do not appear to be any "bedroom communities" in Wyoming, which are common elsewhere, especially near large cities.

Actually that's what quite a bit of Laramie County is - bedroom communities for Cheyenne where there are plenty of good jobs with government agencies (county, state and federal) and suppliers to government.  Cheyenne is Wyoming's small equivalent to Washington, DC - recession proof because nobody ever loses a job, and the jobs pay really well.

[Crappiewy]

Cheyenne is like DC in more ways than that. It is a HOLE!

It is also interesting to note than most of the goverment people live in areas that in other cities would be concidered upper class neighborhoods. I have never, not once rented a house to a goverment employee in Cheyenne. A normal house is beneath them....
If it is not on 5 acres, 4 bedroom with a 3 car garage they are just not interested.

[Terence]

Here's a good Jack Spirko's podcast applicable to weighing the pros
and cons of remote vs. city bug out locations.

Join me today as we discuss…

What is a bug out location and what is its purpose?
Why being to remote can back fire
The value of a line of sight neighbor
Interviewing neighbors before you buy
On remote land you have hide everything you can’t bring in with you
The one thing you never want at a BOL
Balancing the risks vs. the reward of neighbors
Wild life and wild plants
Permanent crops and blend them into the surroundings
The advantages of underground structures
The steel container (the good, bad and ugly)
Water on property is golden (even seasonal)
The RV and the Storage Facility not ideal but damn good
Guns, ammo, trapping gear and fishing equipment
Seeds, gardening supplies and fertilizer
Go with long term storage food for everything short of a few weeks
All in all I prefer a very small community to a isolated retreat

[4n23vl]

Huh.  When I passed through Cheyenne last fall I stopped to eat at a small diner that was recommended to me by a local coin dealer.  I gave some Oath Keepers cards to some local Air Force members, and as I was leaving offered such to two obese plainclothes cops, at least one of whom had a "sheriff" hat.  I asked if I could give him one (a push card and maybe a flier) and he gave an abrupt "No."  Its the only time I've been turned down like that...

[Wyobob]

I was looking for property a couple weeks ago driving around the state I found that food cost was 30% higher in Newcastle than here in Laramie while Torrington was about 10% higher and Cheyenne is about 15% lower for what it's worth.

[MamaLiberty]

I was looking for property a couple weeks ago driving around the state I found that food cost was 30% higher in Newcastle than here in Laramie while Torrington was about 10% higher and Cheyenne is about 15% lower for what it's worth.

It's all relative. I wouldn't live in Laramie, or any city for that matter. Food prices CAN be higher here, especially if you can't get to the city. But when I did my calculations, the overall cost of living was lower than almost anywhere I would agree to live. Taxes are lower, for one thing, and that's always good.

And when the starving, screaming goblins come out of Denver (maybe even Cheyenne), looking for rape and pillage, it will be nice to be so far away...

[Wyobob]

I wouldn't either hence the reason I am looking for property elsewhere.   

[4n23vl]

"And when the starving, screaming goblins come out of Denver (maybe even Cheyenne), looking for rape and pillage, it will be nice to be so far away..."

Being far away and isolated can also work to the advantage of the "goblins" in that they can, potentially, take their time to observe you, and invade when you are least expecting it and in creative, time-consuming ways.  Will there be somebody at the house to keep watch 24-7?  They will figure, rightly, that folks like us have fat larders that we can live alone far away and we will thus be tempting targets.  If and when they can get through your security, you have no recourse and they can set up shop.  This is what happened in Argentina, according to Ferfal, in the most brutal ways.

Also, are folks in Newcastle (& Hot Springs, and Rapid City) 100% prepared for hyperinflation?  There may be plenty of desperate people even there, maybe more percentage-wise, depending on how the economy there is impacted.  In Argentina, the collapse saw mass exodus from rural areas into cities.  This is the case throughout the third world too, where people leave their fields and plots for urban shanty towns, seeking better economic opportunity.   

So, you can't take for granted, that isolation will work to your advantage, it could be the reverse.  So I am suggesting that FSW folks plan living arrangements accordingly.  If you already have property that you are committed to, maybe you can add rooms or buildings, to accommodate other FSW members, such that you create a defensible micro community.  In any event, a collapse will probably make things much more difficult in rural areas too.     

[Crappiewy]

We have an entirely different situation here in the states than they did in Argentina. Most of the people who had moved from the countryside into the cities after the collapse had just years before moved from the city to the countryside using debt provided by the goverment. Their lands and farming operations were heavly leveraged and when the economy collapsed they had no choice but to leave.

The vast majority of the people in the countryside in Wyoming are fairly self sufficient and can handle an economic collapse and not have need to abandon their properties. There will of course be the few that are leveraged and will need to flee the banks but they are the minority.

[LisaIA]

In times when I let my mind wander, I too can't help but imagine something of a JWR "Patriots" scenario including a co-located retreat group with 24/7 guard shifts.  We (husband and I) are striving to be worthy of such a group, and have realized we have some work to do in terms of practical skill sets.