Predictions on the economy

[sambaguy]

Ironsights, would you be so kind as to try to be a tad more precise than "total collapse"?  It would be a big favor.  I mention it because even Zimbabwe arguably hasn't had a 'total' collapse.  Ruined, but not necessarily 'totally.' 

People talk a lot about Argentina, but Zimbabwe might teach us more.  I believe that in 2009 or 2010, the population of Zimbabwe was estimated to shrink (due to starvation) by about 30%, according to a big aid donor.  The population there had probably already declined phenomenally before then.  The Heritage Foundation says the Zimbabwean banking system has been characterized by numerous collapses/crises.  Barring the immediate Stalization/Obamanization of the USA, things here may not turn into Zimbabwe.  One reason: Obama does not exactly have the kind of minions that started throwing the established farmers off of their land in Zimbabwe.  Very close, perhaps, but they have not exactly started wielding machetes yet.  That is a big factor in the Heritage Foundation's very low score in Economic Freedom for Zimbabwe.  Many think Obama is trying to become an absolute tyrant and say his intent is just like Mugabe's, so maybe he will.  Further, America may have more backbone or oomph than Black Rhodesians, who were 95% of Southern Rhodesia and who joined the Marxists more often than not.  Impossible to say.  America is spoiled, but judging by responses of the public at the Republican debates, about half of the country still has a skeleton of respect for property. 

This won't exactly be Leningrad under siege.  Maybe one will have to rely completely on one's stored food for years, but that is not certain. 

[pedro wyomiing]

I want to cast doubt on Boston's recommendations in the Gun Bible - thousands of rounds of .308, tens of thousands of .22, etc.  We have enormous speculative opportunity.  Anyone buying far too much ammo is throwing a big part of it away.  Note I'm only advocating one buying 100 rds. of .308.  Just don't buy thousands, unless you have a lot of pals who you know will need it.

I have never had ammo go down in price.  Not once in 20 years.  I also have not indulged in panic buying at 900USD/box either.  It is as durable as any other tangible investment and can go a lot of places that gold and silver cannot.  I will invest accordingly as oppourtunity arises.  Without that, i will be in the market for the things I would use the gold for...instead of buying with gold, i will be selling for it WSHTF.  If the delusional idealists are right and the economy recovers, i will have years of happy living, not spending a dime, using the stores i have.

[clemmac]

Marksmanship is a very perishable skill, so I think buying some extra ammunition and shooting it in meaningful practice is essential to maintain the skill level you have obtained.

YOU decide what's just enough, I'd sooner have a few cases of ammunition too many, than a few cases too few 

[sambaguy]

@pedro   Ammo may not decline in price, but the price of base metals relative to gold is virtually certain to plummet in the near future b/c of mass starvation.  I don't agree with Jim Rogers on commodities.  A big part of the increase in price of ammo is the large increase in the cost of the raw materials.  Getting iron out of the Australian Outback, one of the globe's chief sources right now, is very expensive, I promise. 

@clemmac, Fine, but while one is talking about sooners, one might sooner have a free country.

Either mad max will happen or not.  If it doesn't, one can assume that the USG will probably extend to Denver, and eventually by extension WY.  If mad max does happen, it probably will not completely destroy China, though it would easily destroy America.  Hong Kong and Singapore will probably make it, and mainland Chinese save money a lot.  Therefore, a communist or even Singaporean invasion of America, however unlikely, is not completely implausible.  I think Paul Bonneau linked to a page on collapse that had a link to a site that urged moving to TX b/c of all the armed ranchers there who would fight the Chinese.  He lives near Austin, which of course is too close to a major city.  Still, a watered part of NW Texas would have its attractions b/c of the Chinese scenario. 

[clemmac]

@clemmac, Fine, but while one is talking about sooners, one might sooner have a free country.

Yes, agreed !  I've been doing what I can about that "free country" for years and I'll continue doing.  I'll ALSO preserve my perishable skills by doing, not just talking about it.  Get out to the range and shoot, buy some extra ammo so you can continue your practice.

[jscottdavis04]

I am normally not a doomsayer, but when it comes to people and rationality, always bet against them.  Individual humans are intelligent, articulate, and thoughtful.  People as a group are stupid, emotionally driven, and prone to illogical action. 

"people and rationality" don't matter.  The MATH is against anything but Total Collapse.  Sooner or Later it MUST happen.

eh... that's the kind of logic that Al Gore and others use when they make their argument that our society is "overdeveloped." If total collapse is the only possible outcome, then humans would have been better off staying in their caves long ago, rather than venturing out into the sunlight.

We can't predict the future on this issue any better than someone could have predicted what would have happened with the invention of the Internet, or the automobile or the collapse of the Soviet Union. We don't have the schema to even conceive of it... we don't know what the world will look like if private spaceflight takes hold in the next few years, we don't know what the world will look like if China becomes the sole superpower... it's pointless to try to make predictions because we will be as wrong (and laughable) as those who predicted a Jetson-esque future of the 1960s.

I think we're kidding ourselves if we think that the downfall of the US or any other such calamity will mean the end of civilization as we know it. I bet Communist Party members in Moscow felt equally as important to the fate of the world in 1988 as many here do nowadays... but the world kept turning and we humans are still here to dream of new delusions. That being said, the Soviet Union is probably a good historical lesson for us: currency collapse, life savings lost, high unemployment, political corruption... sounds a lot like 2008-Present if you ask me!

Mark Steyn has a new book out called After America. I like Steyn's take on SOME things... this is one area where I disagree with the bulk of his thesis. He believes that the downfall of the US will be violent and nasty... he may be right to some extent, but I don't buy into such doomsday scenarios. There's really nothing profitable to be gained from such thought-experiments, as one's chances for survival in such a situation (regardless of how much you prepare) would be pretty slim. It's like living your life in preparation for the Second-Coming. I'd given up on such Millennial superstitions when I stopped going to church. I'm not about to trade one vision of doomsday for yet another.

[sambaguy]

This is going to be the downfall of the US, Europe, Japan, Russia, China, India, and plenty of other places.  Whatever life in these territories looks like five years from now, the global balance of power will be different.  Probably the Arabian principalities will get a lot more power.  We're going to have relatively much more powerful enemies, and soon, whether in Washington or Asia. 

[sambaguy]

Obviously this topic is dying down, but doesn't anyone feel that the price of base metals relative to gold is going to drop a lot?

[EHBIV]

I'm not sure about the price of base metals compared to precious metals or anything else.

The future is difficult for even Yoda to see.

I do know that being out of debt, living in a rural (vs. urban) area, having the ability to produce at least some of your own food, having some food stored, having essential skills and equipment and being around independent, self-sufficient people will greatly increase your odds for making it through WHATEVER the future throws at us.

Having some ammunition - even more than you think you'll need - seems like a good idea to me. For some reason I don't think anyone has mentioned reloading ammunition on this threat yet but, obviously, that will cut down on your shooting costs now (thus increasing the chances of you actually shooting and remaining proficient with your weapons(s)) AND make it possible to continue to shoot later if the supply of ammunition dries up or becomes restricted. As an added bonus, many powders and primers can be used to reload different calibers so stocking up on powder, primer, lead and molds seems like a good idea if you want to increase the chances you have of being able to shoot in the future.

I personally think that having LAND - especially land that you can grow food on - will be far more important to people in a few years than any other commodity.

[sambaguy]

Locally, the price of base metals may skyrocket relative to gold, but in whatever centers of global trade that remain after the collapse - Riyadh, Hong Kong, whatever - the price of base metals five years from now will probably be much lower.

[Crappiewy]

Not likely. Base metals are a strange creature. They are lowest during a booming economy. Highest at the low ends of the economy due to factors such as gouging on the high end and lack of supply on the low end. Companies stop producing when they cant make a profit as happens when economies fail. Demand is very low and price is very high.

[sambaguy]

If demand for any good is relatively low, and particularly if it is very low, the price will be correspondingly lower.  It sounds like you are proposing that supply and demand doesn't apply here.  What did I miss?

[sambaguy]

'Gouging' is what socialists call charging a high price during scarcity.

[adambomb]

Adding my $0.02 to the "Mad Max" discussion, being one who is quite an aficionado of the movies:  Bear in mind the premise.  It was written in something like 1979, while the cold war was raging.  The first movie didn't really get into specifics, but by the time Beyond Thunderdome came out in 1986 the writers decided it was most "marketable" to surmise that the situation was caused by nuclear apocalypse.  And the good news about all this "globalization" that's going on is no one really wants to pull the trigger on another.  We feed the Chinese market, and they'd be damned fools to try to nuke their biggest "customers."  And we couldn't afford to going back to 100% US made goods.  It's economic mutually assured destruction.  So who's the big nuclear threat the neocons are talking about these days?  Iran.  Oh yeah, those guys we have trade sanctions against.   

So, assuming we don't cause Iran to successfully nuke us, what exactly would cause Mad Max proportions of "pokyclypse?"  Most of the fantasies I hear are a level worse than daily life in Afghanistan.  And they have been at war for the last 30 years, the first 10 of which were marked by the Soviets raping, pillaging, burning down all their forests, and planting 4 land mines for every person that lived there.  And it wasn't a spectacularly "nice" country before that all happened.

The absolute worst case scenario I can envision is another depression.  The American culture is still too foolhardy and self-sufficient to cause "total collapse" IMO.

[Crappiewy]

Metals are a traded Item. They dont correspond well with supply and demand. They are bought in bulk by speculators, not users. What the mines get paid also dosent correspond well with the price.

An example is the stock market. The economy hasent improved since 2008, however stocks are at all time highs. They should be at all time lows but they are traded by speculators who only make money when it goes up or down in large swings.