"It will work!"

[planetaryjim]

Dear Friends,

Things are looking very, very promising.

How so?  Well, I took what I recall as the correct number for 2004 and the official numbers from the Casper Star Tribune for 2005, 2006, and 2007 as it would not do to contradict the established mainstream media  and here we go:

2004            28
2005            40
2006            80
2007          130
2008          219
2009          369
2010          621
2011       1,046
2012       1,762
2013       2,968
2014       5,001
2015       8,426
2016     14,197
2017     23,921
2018     40,306
2019     67,915
2020   114,436

Where do these figures come from?

Well, as I said, the historical figures are my recollection for 2004, plus published figures.  These values generate three growth rates, being 1.429, 2, and 1.625.  That is, the growth from 2004 to 2005 was almost 1.43, the growth from 2005 to 2006 was about double, and the growth from 2006 to 2007 was one and five eighths.  These are then averaged to generate a value of 1.685.

I then applied that growth rate to the value for 2007 and truncated it to the nearest person to get a value for 2008.  (One could quibble about rounding up or down.  Truncating always rounds down.) 

Depending on what you believe about the future, the growth of population in Wyoming, and the meaning of attendance at the jamboree, these figures look very promising, to me.  I am, of course, extrapolating a large data set from a small one.  So, logically, one should not pay as much attention to the projections beyond the year 2011, since that is the fourth year of the projection based on a sample of four years. 

I would say that the attendance at the jamboree represents a core of very dedicated people (judging by the faces I keep seeing) plus the most interested of the forum members.  If we suppose there were about 590 people on the forum at the time that most who attended actually chose to schedule their time off for the jam and otherwise plan for it, then the jam represents about 22% of the total on the forum. 

That growth curve looks like so:
            jamsters     forum members?
2004   28             127
2005   40             181
2006   80             363
2007   130            590
2008   219            995
2009   369          1677
2010   621          2822
2011   1,046         4754
2012   1,762         8009
2013   2,968       13490
2014   5,001       22731
2015   8,426       38300
2016   14,197      64531
2017   23,921    108731
2018   40,306    183209
2019   67,915    308704
2020   114,436   520163

Obviously, those are very nice numbers indeed, especially in later years.  But, they are even more uncertain, because I am utterly extrapolating from a single data point.  If anyone knows what the Yahoo forum or this forum's membership were like two months prior to the 2004, 2005, or 2006 jams, that would be additional data to use in forming a trend line.  But, again, its statistical validity in the more distant future would be questionable.

Growth is good.  Geometric growth is clearly present.  No, we did not double again this year, unless one is very generous with rounding, which I prefer not to be.     But, we still have a geometric growth rate which presents very respectable figures.

It is the case that the number of people with actual voting residence in Wyoming who are members of FSW (or associates) is and has been so far, smaller than the number of people who have attended the jam that year.  However, obviously, one can see a time when there are people in the state who are members and don't bother to attend the jam.  This year is an example.  At some point, they may outnumber those who do attend the jam.  So, the forum membership times some factor becomes the FSW voter impact.

In other words, briefly, I think we are seeing a trend which promises great political success by 2020.

Regards,

Jim
 

[P'ahin Nunihan]

Thanks for the numbers Jim.  As you stated pretty limited data to work with so the analysis isn't what, in my business, is considered "actuarily valid", it's nonetheless very encouraging.  Like Antonio said, "What's past is prologue, what to come, in yours and my discharge".

Back, then, to the work of turning those "soft" numbers into real ones  .

[lunghd]

114,436? We're gonna need a bigger campground by at least 2020... 

[MamaLiberty]

114,000 "gun nuts" all in one place? We'd best camp a ways out of town... and have one heck of a range built!! LOL