Author Topic: Predictions on the economy  (Read 18144 times)

Offline sambaguy

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Predictions on the economy
« on: December 13, 2011, 09:42:20 PM »
Anyone care to venture?  A grim topic, of course.  I've been operating for a long time on Jim Roger's prediction made in, I believe 2008, that by 2012, the world was going to implode.  By this I assumed that basically everyone who was going to starve or be killed in riots would do so by 2012.  I've heard others here say basically the dying would start in a major burst 2012 and continue until sometime between about 2016 and 2022 or so.  Obviously, many of the behaviors one should adopt do not depend on the economy. 

Offline SunDog

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Re: Predictions on the economy
« Reply #1 on: December 14, 2011, 10:47:52 AM »
It's impossible to know how events will turn in the short term, but I don't get the feeling that the US has the national will to solve the problems facing it in the next few years. This means the economy will likely continue its decent into chaos. That could lead to economic upheavals, regime change, etc. by 2016. A recent article, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/ML13Dj05.html, suggests a rather astounding view for the longer term, namely, that lower fertility rates will decrease world population by 2100 by some 20%. As nations and groups decline, there is likely to be irrational acts - wars, terrorism, etc.

Or everyone could come to their senses  ::).

Offline HCM2B

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Re: Predictions on the economy
« Reply #2 on: December 14, 2011, 10:52:24 AM »
I am normally not a doomsayer, but when it comes to people and rationality, always bet against them.  Individual humans are intelligent, articulate, and thoughtful.  People as a group are stupid, emotionally driven, and prone to illogical action. 
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Offline Crappiewy

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Re: Predictions on the economy
« Reply #3 on: December 14, 2011, 11:15:56 AM »
Or everyone could come to their senses  ::).

Where is the roflmao Smilie?   It is getting more useful every day.........

Offline clemmac

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Re: Predictions on the economy
« Reply #4 on: December 14, 2011, 11:28:20 AM »
Or everyone could come to their senses  ::).

Where is the roflmao Smilie?   It is getting more useful every day.........

Here's one.


adambomb

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Re: Predictions on the economy
« Reply #5 on: December 15, 2011, 04:58:33 PM »
Was just discussing this the other day, mainly in light of gold and silver taking their last couple dips over the last couple months.  The cause of these dips is thought to be European investors beefing up the dollar with the Euro going down the tubes.  Let's also bear in mind the bailout money...where did it go?  US treasury.  I've read other reports that point toward an all-out US treasury bubble.  That's where the BS from the credit/real estate bubble went, and now it's catching the BS from the failing Euro.

My admittedly un-experienced opinion is that the price of gold/silver in USD (note USD, not VALUE) will continue to decline as the Euro continues its downward spiral.  Or maybe not, maybe it will just go up more slowly.  Suppose that would depend on the investment habits of the Europeans.  Then after the Euro's ultimate demise, we all come to discover that the US treasury has become over inflated, and, well, I think we all know what that means.

So my short-term plan for that is to follow the bit of wisdom of "buying what you need the gold for" rather than gold itself, while obviously keeping an eye on trends.  I anticipate that inflation on "stuff you need" will out-pace inflation of gold/silver.  The last year food went up about 30% to gold's 40% (not hard facts, just what I've observed), but with the fall of the Euro in the mix that could easily flip.  I'd guess that by the time gold/silver start to go up, they will likely go up big time, as it's something more keen investors will probably be keeping a close eye on as well.

As for "buying what you need the gold for," things like backup power, heirloom seeds, and the typical nice things to have during SHTF seem to be a good start.  In anticipation of increased crime caused by looters and other un-prepared people whose desperation surpasses their morality, security seems like a good bet as well. 

Any thoughts?

Offline sambaguy

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Re: Predictions on the economy
« Reply #6 on: December 15, 2011, 05:44:57 PM »
My thought, surely not new, is that for an indeterminate period, food, ammunition, firearms, tools, perhaps some other types of items, and possibly seeds if things go for more than a season or two, and in various areas will be priceless.  My base scenario is that one-third of the people currently living paycheck to paycheck (77% of Americans, according to this guy in 2010*) will die.  That means about 1/4 of the country, or 80 million.  More elsewhere in the developed world.  Meanwhile, hyperinflation will take hold, and owning PMs will be necessary. 

After the reestablishment of commerce throughout the USA, (assuming it ceases in remote places), all of the items that we are buying now for a relatively high price, such as 1000 rds of .308 for, say, 1/4 of a price of an oz. of gold, will drop by 80% or more measured in terms of gold because global demand for base metals, food, and other necessities will remain very low, thanks to a population drop by 1/4 in the developed world and the impoverishment of that developed world.  I estimate (don't quote me) base metal consumption will drop to 25% of what it has been.  Probably concomitant with this would be an increase in consumption of metal for ammunition and other 'security' goods, but a drop in industrial consumption.  Transporatation becomes more expensive because trucks now must travel by convoy with guards hired to fight off bandits, and the price of goods becomes correspoindingly more expensive. 

Implication: one should have survivalist stuff, but not enough for Mad Max, and the rest of one's assets should be in PMs to deal with hyperinflation.  Elsewhere it has been stated that the first thing to go in case of hyperinflation was clean water, I'll add. 

Alternative scenario: commerce is not really interrupted, but ammunition costs do not drop by 75%  because of increased domestic need and rise in cost of transport and operation of stores.  In Cebu, in the Philippines, quite a corrupt place, every medium-sized shop/business hires a security guard.  Potentially our (distant) future.

Likewise, a piece of gear on which I have had my eye is a 3rd gen. NVG.  (I'm broke.)  Without mad max, such is probably not worth buying. 
*http://economicrot.blogspot.com/2010/09/77-of-americans-now-living-paycheck-to.html

Offline Crappiewy

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Re: Predictions on the economy
« Reply #7 on: December 15, 2011, 06:29:37 PM »
I think that most of the US would just turn into Northern Mexico.. Same corruption, same crime, same unemployment so on and so forth.
You will have fighting in the street between the Gov and the terrorists. Everything will be blamed on the terrorists. Gotta blame someone...

Offline EHBIV

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Re: Predictions on the economy
« Reply #8 on: December 15, 2011, 11:22:05 PM »
On the National scale, I have very little influence.

On a PERSONAL scale, I can do what I can to become self-sufficient, eliminate debt, legally procure things which help me to have the ability to feed myself, my family and (preferably) at least some of my neighbors.

I have lived and travelled extensively in Latin America and I see many parallels with what goes on there. I anticipate a continued erosion of our buying power, continued denial (on both individual and collective levels) that "somehow things will work out" and, eventually, a virtual extinction of the middle class.

In Argentina a "wealthy" and "smart" person immediately spends the money they get on rice and cooking oil because the amount of rice and cooking oil that they can purchase today is more than their money will purchase tomorrow. Don't be at all shocked when you start seeing people here define "wealth" in similar ways.

Ultimately the government (by design or negligence) is enslaving all of us economically to further solidify their power base and give the appearance of legitimacy to their insatiable desire for bigger government. Do what you can to get yourself, your family, your neighbors and everyone else as free from this damning trend while you can.

Offline sambaguy

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Re: Predictions on the economy
« Reply #9 on: December 15, 2011, 11:47:48 PM »
These observations are good, but I feel my observations on the prices of ammo, particularly, were more directly related to the OP, at least the topic I intended to raise. 

Offline sambaguy

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Re: Predictions on the economy
« Reply #10 on: December 16, 2011, 12:05:38 AM »
I want to cast doubt on Boston's recommendations in the Gun Bible - thousands of rounds of .308, tens of thousands of .22, etc.  We have enormous speculative opportunity.  Anyone buying far too much ammo is throwing a big part of it away.  Note I'm only advocating one buying 100 rds. of .308.  Just don't buy thousands, unless you have a lot of pals who you know will need it.

Offline EHBIV

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Re: Predictions on the economy
« Reply #11 on: December 16, 2011, 06:46:10 PM »
I see where you're going but I am not sure how you would waste any ammunition that you don't immediately use. Modern ammunition has no real shelf-life and if it's kept dry and cool is will last longer than you or I will.

I have shot ammunition that was over 40 years old (including 12 Ga. with paper shells) without a single problem in the "real world" and I've shot .50 BMG in Iraq that was manufactured during WWII. Think about that, I TRUSTED my life to ammunition that was over 60 years old...

I think that there are limits to everything and that going into debt to buy ammunition and not having any foodstuffs, toilet paper, nice boots or nice sleeping bags is less than ideal. Having said that, when do you think the government will outlaw food, toilet paper, boots or sleeping bags? They certainly have tried to ban (or make prohibitively expensive or put materials in ammunition and reloading powder which WILL break down and, eventually, create a shelf-life for ammunition).

I can easily envision a time when my children or grandchildren FERVENTLY thank me for having the forsight to stock up on plenty of ammunition - especially in rimfire .22 which is very difficult for most people to reload.

I guess that puts me more in line with Boston on this one. Having said that, the PR associated with "...and then they found ten million rounds of ammunition on his property..." would be hard for most people to understand.

I'm also reminded of the time they made the 7.62 x 39 "steel core" ammunition illegal and my buddy with a MAK-90 suddenly had a very nice club while I still had a semi-automatic (or should we say "self-loading") rifle... That one worked out well for me though as I picked up a brand-new MAK-90 for less than the cost of a Ruger 10-22.

Offline sambaguy

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Re: Predictions on the economy
« Reply #12 on: December 16, 2011, 06:56:31 PM »
Correction: I meant to write that one should have more .308 than simply 100 rds. 

One wouldn't be wasting the ammo b/c of the ammo spoiling.  One would be wasting money on ammo b/c I believe that shortly after the coming collapse, ammo will be dirt cheap.  Gold would be more valuable than your 5,000th rd. of ammo.

Offline EHBIV

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Re: Predictions on the economy
« Reply #13 on: December 16, 2011, 07:04:22 PM »
Gold, silver or anything else small, portable and valuable is a good thing but remember that in places like Leningrad FOOD was king and people would trade away all they had for a few bites of food.

At the end of the day, gold won't keep you warm or fill your belly. On the other hand, neither will ammunition, unless, of course, you go hunting and happen to get something.

Still, I'd rather send lead rapidly downrange than throw gold or silver at someone intent on doing me harm.

As long as a person has "enough" ammunition for any perceived need they may have, they'll sleep at night.

Whatever you do, however, don't count on greenbacks to be worth anything other than tinder when TSHTF - I know I'm preaching to the choir on that one. Gold has some intrinsic value whereas our fiat currency is only good as long as people THINK it's worth something.

Offline Old Ironsights

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Re: Predictions on the economy
« Reply #14 on: December 17, 2011, 06:06:15 PM »
I am normally not a doomsayer, but when it comes to people and rationality, always bet against them.  Individual humans are intelligent, articulate, and thoughtful.  People as a group are stupid, emotionally driven, and prone to illogical action. 

"people and rationality" don't matter.  The MATH is against anything but Total Collapse.  Sooner or Later it MUST happen.
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The desire to control the life of others by proxy, through “voting”, is just as evil… but more cowardly.

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